We map every supplier, every factory, down to the raw material with a disruption probability attached, so procurement knows which supplier agreements to renegotiate, and when.
An energy company preparing a major wind farm investment was drafting tender requirements for site providers. We compared two turbine architectures to establish which is less exposed to geopolitical volatility. The result is a quantified comparison showing how much lower the older architecture's exposure is, in a form that can be written into the requirements.
A European industrial corporation asked us to map one specific supplier's exposure to China-related geopolitical risk. At tier 2, exposure was 15%. Extending the analysis upstream, we found that over 85% of simulated supply chains in that product category are exposed to China risk.
A large industrial company was deciding whether to duplicate suppliers. We analysed one particularly complex chain and found large chokepoints beyond tier 5. Duplication would mitigate only a small share of total geopolitical risk exposure.
| Material | Official | aie estimate |
|---|---|---|
| EU ferro-tungsten imports from China | 68% | 67% |
| Titanium sponge production in China | 67% | 69% |
Two comparisons — the points where an independent official figure exists for the same quantity.
+56%more accurate than chance
+30%better than the base rate
Most geopolitical analysis is sold as opinion that cannot be scored. Ours can be, so we score it.
A recent engagement on an industrial electric motor: 14 tiers, 434 industries, 4,944 suppliers, 9,367 factories.
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Fifteen years in strategic foresight. Built three award-winning ventures (Scoopinion, Herring, Konsensus.me) and led a 20-person team at a think tank. Author of two books on platform business models. Teaches strategic foresight at Aalto University Executive Education. Aalto, University of Helsinki, Stanford.
johannes@aie.eu
PhD in machine learning. Former CEO of ZenRobotics. Built Reaktor's AI consulting practice from scratch. Former Head of Data Science at Unity Technologies, serving 3M+ active users. Client work including Vodafone, Dow Jones and HBO.
jaakko@aie.eu